morganable business/Economy
Data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler, cited in the report, indicated that Dangote’s petroleum product shipments covered several West African markets, extending from Senegal to Angola.
KaNo—
Nigeria continued to import an average of 78,000 barrels of petrol per day between April and August 2026, despite increased production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which exported part of its gasoline output to neighbouring West African markets.
A report by Argus Media revealed that Nigeria’s average petrol consumption during the five-month period stood at 279,000 barrels per day, exceeding the refinery’s average output of 258,000 barrels per day.
The report showed that the country continued to depend on imported petrol to supplement domestic supply, even as the $20bn refinery took advantage of favourable market conditions to export petroleum products to other African countries.
According to George Mayer-Bonnett, Deputy Editor, Oil Products at Argus Media, the refinery’s deliveries to West African markets reached a record 172,000 barrels per day in September, surpassing the previous record of 152,000 barrels per day recorded in August.
The development highlights the growing influence of the Lekki-based refinery in the regional petroleum market, where countries continue to depend heavily on imported refined products to meet domestic energy requirements.
Data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler, cited in the report, indicated that Dangote’s petroleum product shipments covered several West African markets, extending from Senegal to Angola.
The report disclosed that petrol accounted for the largest proportion of the refinery’s September exports, with shipments averaging 62,000 barrels per day.
Diesel and gasoil deliveries followed at 57,000 barrels per day, while aviation fuel shipments reached 36,000 barrels per day. Other clean petroleum products accounted for another 17,000 barrels per day.
The figures suggest that the refinery is increasingly positioning itself as a major supplier of refined petroleum products across West Africa, although imports from outside the region remain substantial.
According to Kpler, West African countries received 516,000 barrels per day of refined petroleum products from external suppliers in September, representing the second-lowest monthly volume recorded since the end of 2017.
Imports from the European Union, United Kingdom and Norway also declined to a five-month low of 282,000 barrels per day during the period.
The report further attributed the refinery’s expanding regional supply to increased crude oil receipts at its Lekki facility.
Argus tracking data showed that crude receipts averaged a record 665,000 barrels per day in September, exceeding the previous peak of 660,000 barrels per day recorded in June.
The increased crude deliveries provided additional feedstock for refining operations and supported higher production volumes across different petroleum product categories.
However, the report revealed significant differences between domestic consumption and the refinery’s output of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel.
Data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority indicated that Dangote’s diesel production averaged 130,000 barrels per day between April and August, compared with Nigeria’s average consumption of 98,000 barrels per day.
This represented an average production surplus of 32,000 barrels per day, creating opportunities for the refinery to supply diesel to international markets.
The difference was more pronounced in aviation fuel production, where output averaged 136,000 barrels per day against domestic consumption of just 16,000 barrels per day.
Consequently, the refinery produced substantially more diesel and aviation fuel than Nigeria consumed during the period, strengthening its capacity to participate in regional petroleum trade.
Petrol production, however, presented a different situation, as domestic consumption exceeded the refinery’s average output by 21,000 barrels per day.
Despite the shortfall, continued petrol imports into Nigeria created opportunities for Dangote to export some of its production whenever regional market conditions offered favourable returns.
“Gasoline presents a different picture. Nigerian consumption averaged 279,000 b/d during April-August, exceeding Dangote’s output of 258,000 b/d. But Nigeria also imported 78,000 b/d of gasoline over the period, allowing Dangote to export some of its own production when regional arbitrage opportunities emerged,” the report stated.
The findings come amid claims by the Dangote Group that its refinery produces more petrol than Nigeria requires, highlighting differences between the company’s position and the average production and consumption figures presented in the report.
Meanwhile, the President and Chief Executive of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Aliko Dangote, has announced plans to expand the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by early 2029.
Dangote disclosed this on Monday while addressing participants virtually at the final initial public offering roadshow organised by Financial Derivatives Company in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
The event, themed “Back to Where It All Began,” provided an opportunity for prospective investors to learn about the refinery’s expansion plans and investment prospects.
According to Dangote, the proposed expansion will increase the facility’s capacity from its stated current level of 500,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day.
“By 2029 beginning, we will be at 1.4 million barrels per day. That is a total of 10 per cent of America’s total refining capacity,” he stated.
He also projected substantial growth in the refinery’s petrochemical operations, including annual production of 2.5 million tonnes of polyolefin and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkylbenzene.
Dangote described the proposed petrochemical expansion as a major milestone for African industrial development, expressing confidence in the facility’s long-term growth prospects.
Speaking on the ongoing public share offering, the industrialist assured Nigerians, particularly small and low-income investors, that they would have opportunities to participate despite concerns about oversubscription.
He explained that the company intended to accommodate smaller investors seeking to purchase 50,000 shares or fewer.
“Most of the smaller people who are bidding for 50,000 shares and below will definitely be sure that we accommodate all of them,” Dangote assured.
He defended the IPO offer price of N525 per share, describing it as attractive and expressing optimism that the refinery’s financial performance could exceed its projected full-year earnings.
Dangote also suggested that investors could potentially earn more than double their initial investments within two and a half years, while maintaining that returns would be denominated in dollars.
In his keynote address, the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Bismarck Rewane, encouraged Nigerians to consider the public offering as an opportunity to become investors in critical national infrastructure rather than remaining solely consumers.
Rewane projected that the refinery’s listing could significantly strengthen the Nigerian capital market, potentially pushing total market capitalisation beyond N220tn.
The planned expansion comes as the refinery strengthens its position in West Africa’s petroleum market, with rising regional exports demonstrating its growing role in supplying refined products beyond Nigeria.
