The crude shipments were undertaken by a mix of international and indigenous oil firms, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, reflecting the scale and diversity of Nigeria’s upstream sector.
kaNo —
Nigeria earned an estimated N20.22tn from crude oil exports between January and May 2026, underscoring the continued importance of petroleum to the country’s economy despite lingering concerns over production capacity and domestic supply constraints.
Data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the country exported approximately 148.9 million barrels of crude oil within the five-month period, generating about $14.66bn in revenue at an exchange rate of N1,380 to the dollar.
The crude shipments were undertaken by a mix of international and indigenous oil firms, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, reflecting the scale and diversity of Nigeria’s upstream sector.
Despite these concerns, the strong export performance significantly boosted Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflows during the review period.
Higher Prices Offset Lower Volumes
A year-on-year comparison revealed a paradox in Nigeria’s crude oil trade performance. While export volumes declined, earnings rose sharply due to elevated global oil prices.
This indicates a drop of 5.1 million barrels or 3.3 per cent in export volume for 2026.
However, export revenue surged by $3.34bn, representing a 29.5 per cent increase.
The rise in earnings was driven largely by a spike in international crude oil prices, particularly between March and May 2026.
Analysts attribute this surge to geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran conflict, which disrupted global oil supply chains.
Crude prices averaged $68.05 per barrel in January and $72.33 in February before jumping significantly to $106.09 in March, $126.71 in April, and $112.63 in May.
The price rally followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route.
Production and Export Trends
A monthly breakdown showed production volumes of 45.26 million barrels in January, 36.68 million barrels in February, 42.78 million barrels in March, 44.70 million barrels in April, and 47.43 million barrels in May.
Crude exports mirrored this trend, with 31.31 million barrels exported in January, 24.08 million barrels in February, 28.83 million barrels in March, 31.20 million barrels in April, and 33.48 million barrels in May.
In value terms, exports were estimated at $2.13bn in January, $1.74bn in February, $3.06bn in March, $3.95bn in April, and $3.77bn in May.
On the production side, output values were estimated at $3.08bn in January, $2.65bn in February, $4.54bn in March, $5.67bn in April, and $5.34bn in May.
Average daily crude oil production improved steadily over the period, rising from 1.46 million barrels per day in January to 1.53 million barrels per day in May, despite a dip to 1.31 million barrels per day in February.
Similarly, average daily crude exports increased from 1.01 million barrels per day in January to 1.08 million barrels per day in May, although February recorded a low of 0.86 million barrels per day.
Overall, Nigeria exported approximately 68.7 per cent of its total crude production during the period, leaving about 67.95 million barrels for domestic consumption, refining, and storage.
Domestic Supply Concerns Persist
Despite the robust export earnings, concerns have continued to mount over the adequacy of crude supply to domestic refineries.
Latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority indicated that domestic crude supply to refineries dropped to 15.84 million barrels in May 2026.
This was lower than the combined refinery intake of 17.92 million barrels for the same month, suggesting a supply gap.
Industry stakeholders have expressed concern that oil producers may be prioritising exports to take advantage of higher international prices, potentially undermining local refining capacity.
This trend, they argue, runs contrary to the domestic crude supply obligations outlined in the Petroleum Industry Act, which mandates producers to allocate sufficient crude for local refineries.
Revenue Versus Reality
This is due to various deductions, including production-sharing contracts, royalties, taxes, operational costs, and other commercial arrangements within the oil sector.
Nonetheless, the data highlights the critical role of crude oil exports in sustaining Nigeria’s economy, particularly in terms of foreign exchange generation.
Outlook
The performance of Nigeria’s crude oil sector in the first five months of 2026 underscores both opportunities and challenges.
While higher global oil prices have boosted export earnings, declining volumes and domestic supply constraints pose risks to long-term sustainability.
As oil producers make money from high oil export volumes, local refiners said this was against the domestic crude supply obligation of the Petroleum Industry Act
Analysts warn that unless Nigeria improves production efficiency and balances export priorities with domestic refining needs, the country may struggle to maximise the full benefits of its oil resources.
