The conflict involving Iran and the United States has eased slightly after a short two-week ceasefire. But even with the pause in fighting, the impact of the war is still spreading across the world in a quiet but powerful way.
This time, the biggest pressure is not only on oil markets or politics. It is on something more basic and more important to everyday life; food production, fertilizer, fuel prices rising, and farmers in many countries were affected.
In the northern Philippines, vegetable farmers are among the first to feel the shock.
Diesel prices have risen sharply, making it more expensive to run tractors, transport crops, and keep farms working normally. For many farmers, fuel is part of their daily survival.
Some farmers have already started changing how they farm. Instead of relying fully on chemical fertilizers, which have become more expensive, they are turning to natural alternatives. In Benguet province, for example, a farmer was recently seen using chicken manure to fertilize a cabbage field, a simple and olden method, showing how rising costs are forcing farmers to adjust quickly. The problem, however, goes much deeper than one country or one region.
Fertilizer production depends heavily on energy, in fact, energy costs can make up as much as 70 percent of total fertilizer production expenses. This is because most fertilizers are made using natural gas as a key raw material. This is why global events that affect energy supply also affect food production.
Much of the world’s fertilizer trade is linked to regions around the Middle East, and the major route for transporting energy and fertilizer products is the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is the most important shipping routes in the world. A large share of global oil and related products passes through it.
Since the Iran-related conflict began, this route has faced disruption risks. Even the possibility of closure or delay is enough to affect global markets, because so much of the world depends on it.
One of the most important fertilizers affected by these changes is urea. Urea is a nitrogen-based fertilizer widely used in agriculture. It is essential for growing crops such as corn, wheat, rice, fruits, and vegetables. It alone accounts for more than half of global nitrogen fertilizer use. As supply becomes tighter, prices have risen. And when fertilizer prices rise, farmers face a difficult choice: pay more to grow the same crops, or change what they grow altogether.
But the fertilizer problem did not begin with the Iran conflict alone, the global market was already under pressure before the war. China, among other largest fertilizer producers in the world, had already restricted exports to protect its domestic supply. At the same time, European fertilizer production had slowed down because energy costs were too high, especially after reduced gas supply from Russia.
These earlier problems had already reduced global supply. So when the Iran conflict added more uncertainty, the system became even more strained.
At the same time, oil prices have also increased due to tensions in the Middle East. This has had a direct effect on fuel costs for transport, farming, and industry. When fuel becomes expensive, everything becomes more expensive. Trucks, ships, and aircraft all depend on fuel to move goods. So rising oil prices quickly spread through the entire economy.
For farmers, this means a double burden. They must pay more for fertilizer and also more for fuel. In many instances they earn the same income but face higher costs. This puts strong pressure on food production systems, most especially in developing countries.
In the United States, farmers are adjusting planting patterns, with some planning to plant less corn, which requires a lot of fertilizer, and more soybeans, which require less input. This is a direct response to rising production costs.
In Australia, similar changes are happening. Some growers are moving away from crops like wheat and canola and shifting toward barley and other crops that need less fertilizer. These changes may seem small, but across large farming regions, they can affect global food supply.
India has taken a different approach too, the government has increased fertilizer subsidies to protect farmers from rising prices. It is also exploring alternative production methods, including coal-based gasification, to reduce dependence on imported energy inputs.
China is in a slightly different position. Because it produces much of its fertilizer using coal, it is less exposed to global gas price changes. However, it still monitors supply closely and may limit exports if domestic demand increases. Even with these differences, one pattern is clear: countries are trying to protect themselves from a global supply shock that is becoming harder to control.
In several countries, rising fuel prices have led to public protests. Transport costs are increasing, making it more expensive for people to move goods and travel. When fuel prices rise, bus fares go up, shipping costs increase, and basic goods become more expensive in markets.
In Pakistan, for example, more people are turning to electric motorbikes because petrol has become too expensive for many families. This shows how quickly energy prices can change daily life decisions.
In the aviation sector, experts are also warning that jet fuel supplies will remain tight for months, even if shipping routes stabilize. This means airlines may continue to face higher costs, and passengers may eventually feel the impact through ticket prices.
What is happening now shows how deeply connected the world economy has become.
A conflict in one region can affect fertilizer prices thousands of kilometers away. It can change what farmers plant, how much food is produced, and how much consumers pay in supermarkets.
It also shows how dependent modern agriculture is on energy, and that food production today is not only about land and weather. It is also about fuel, gas, transport, and global trade routes.
Even a small disruption in a key shipping route like the Strait of Hormuz can spread through global markets in a matter of days.
For now, the situation remains uncertain. The ceasefire has reduced immediate tension, but the pressure on global supply chains is still present. Prices remain high, and markets are still adjusting.
Farmers, especially in developing countries, are the most exposed. They sit at the end of a long chain of global events they cannot control. When fuel and fertilizer prices rise, they must absorb the shock first.
The current situation is not just a political issue or a military issue. It is also a food security issue. It affects what people eat, how much they pay, and how stable global agriculture becomes in the months ahead.
The world is watching closely. The war may have paused, but its effects are still moving through markets, farms, and households across the globe.
