morganable business/economy
The agency maintained that the reforms, though initially painful, had begun to yield positive outcomes across key economic indicators, reinforcing the administration’s economic reform agenda tagged the Renewed Hope Agenda.
KaNo—
Nigeria’s tax revenue has surged by 113 per cent in less than three years, rising from N12.3tn in 2023 to N27.1tn as of July 2026, according to a report by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), which attributes the increase to sweeping fiscal reforms implemented under the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
The revenue authority disclosed this in an internal report on the state of the Nigerian economy obtained by the Punch on Monday,noting that the country was gradually transitioning from a period of acute macroeconomic distress to a more stable and resilient economic footing.
According to the report, the significant rise in tax collections followed a combination of policy initiatives, including the digitisation of the tax system, the enactment of four new tax reform laws, the restructuring of the revenue service, and an executive order designed to block leakages and improve compliance.
“Tax collections more than doubled from N12.3tn in 2023 to N27.1tn as of July 2026 with the digitisation of tax systems, four new tax reform laws, the transformation of the revenue service and an executive order that closed loopholes in the system,” the NRS stated.
The agency maintained that the reforms, though initially painful, had begun to yield positive outcomes across key economic indicators, reinforcing the administration’s economic reform agenda tagged the Renewed Hope Agenda.
It said the government inherited multiple structural distortions that had long undermined revenue generation and economic growth.
The report acknowledged that the early stages of reform triggered economic hardship for many Nigerians, particularly following the removal of fuel subsidies and adjustments in the foreign exchange market. However, it argued that recent data points indicate a gradual recovery.
Among the indicators cited were moderating inflation levels, improvements in the country’s balance of payments, increased crude oil production, and Nigeria’s emergence as a net exporter of petroleum products after decades of reliance on imports.
The initiative allows local refiners to purchase crude oil in naira, thereby reducing pressure on foreign exchange and boosting domestic refining capacity.
The report noted that this policy had fundamentally altered Nigeria’s petroleum trade dynamics, enabling the country to transition from a net importer of refined petroleum products to a net exporter.
It added that the success of the arrangement had begun to attract attention from other African countries, with Ghana reportedly exploring a similar model for its own petroleum sector.
In the upstream oil sector, crude oil production has also recorded a steady increase. Output rose from an average of between 1.2 million and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026.
The NRS said this figure represents about 104 per cent of Nigeria’s production quota under the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The increase in oil production is particularly significant for government revenue, as crude oil remains Nigeria’s largest source of foreign exchange earnings and a critical component of public finance.
According to the NRS, the rally in the stock market reflects improved investor confidence driven by macroeconomic reforms, banking sector recapitalisation, and increased participation by domestic institutional investors.
External Reserves Witness Increase
External reserves have also witnessed a sharp increase over the review period. The report indicated that Nigeria’s reserves rose from an unrestricted $3.99bn in 2023 to $51.9bn as of July 2026, marking what it described as a 17-year high.
Similarly, the country’s balance of payments moved from a deficit of $3.34bn to a surplus of $2.38bn in the first quarter of 2026, while the trade balance improved from a marginal surplus of N44.7bn to N7.55tn within the same period.
The composition of exports also showed diversification, with non-crude oil exports, particularly other petroleum products, rising by 51 per cent year-on-year to N6.78tn in the first quarter of 2026.
The NRS also reported a surge in capital importation, which it linked to renewed investor confidence in the Nigerian economy.
Annual capital inflows increased from $3.9bn in 2023 to $23.22bn in 2025, while inflows in the first quarter of 2026 alone stood at $10.37bn.
Foreign portfolio investment accounted for a significant portion of these inflows, although foreign direct investment also showed signs of recovery.
In the energy sector, the expansion of the compressed natural gas (CNG) programme was highlighted as a major policy response to the removal of fuel subsidies.
The report noted that Nigeria had no large-scale CNG programme three years ago, but by 2026, more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted.
The programme has reportedly attracted over $2bn in investment and created more than 10,000 jobs.
CNG Could Reduce Fuel Costs
The NRS estimated that CNG could reduce fuel costs by between 40 and 60 per cent, with some commercial drivers seeing their monthly fuel expenses drop from N50,000 to about N18,000 after conversion.
These measures include the release of strategic grain reserves, the establishment of a N100bn National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution programmes, and an agricultural mechanisation initiative.
Federal budgetary allocation to agriculture rose significantly from N228.4bn in 2023 to N826.5bn in the 2025 budget, reflecting the government’s renewed focus on food security.
The NRS claimed that food prices had declined by about 50 per cent by March 2026, citing data from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture.
However, it acknowledged that the sector would require several planting seasons before the full impact of these interventions becomes evident.
The report also highlighted social indicators, noting that the national minimum wage had doubled between 2023 and 2026.
It further cited estimates from the United Nations Children’s Fund indicating that the number of out-of-school children had declined from 20 million to 18.3 million during the period.
Despite these improvements, the NRS emphasised that sustaining the gains would depend on continued policy discipline, institutional reforms, and the effective implementation of ongoing programmes.
“The Nigerian economy has moved decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing,” the report concluded, while cautioning that maintaining the trajectory would require consistent reform efforts and long-term commitment.
Economic analysts say the coming years will be critical in determining whether the current momentum can be sustained and translated into broad-based economic growth and improved living standards for Nigerians.
