MORGANABLE BUSINESS / GROWTH & POLICY
Nigeria’s oil production peaked at 1.84 million barrels per day in September 2026, as the country met its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude production quota for the fifth consecutive month.
Akure —
Nigeria’s oil production peaked at 1.84 million barrels per day in September 2026, as the country met its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude production quota for the fifth consecutive month.
However, the 1.84 million figure represents the highest daily output recorded during the month, not the monthly average.
Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on October 13 showed that average daily production of crude oil and condensate reached 1.717 million barrels in September.
That marked a 2.34 per cent increase from August’s 1.678 million barrels per day. Excluding condensate, crude oil production averaged 1.53 million barrels daily.
SEPTEMBER OUTPUT RISES
The NUPRC reported that combined crude oil and condensate production reached a daily peak of 1.84 million barrels during September.
On the lowest-producing day, output fell to 1.68 million barrels. These figures show that daily production varied during the month, even as the overall average improved.
The commission attributed the increase mainly to stable operations across most producing assets and the absence of major pipeline outages.
As a result, operators sustained production for longer periods and improved the movement of crude from oilfields to export terminals.
The improvement followed a modest rise in August. Nigeria produced an average of 1.678 million barrels of crude oil and condensate daily that month, compared with 1.671 million barrels in July.
September’s average therefore extended the recovery, although the increase did not erase the need to maintain reliable operations.
NIGERIA MEETS OPEC QUOTA
Crude oil production excluding condensate averaged 1.53 million barrels per day in September. This was above Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, putting production at about 102 per cent of the assigned limit.
The country has now met its quota for five consecutive months. Official figures show crude output of 1.53 million barrels per day in May, 1.55 million in June, 1.51 million in July, 1.50 million in August and 1.53 million in September.
Although the monthly figures moved up and down, Nigeria remained close to or above its quota throughout this period.
That consistency matters because crude oil remains a major source of export earnings and foreign exchange for the country.
However, meeting the quota does not mean Nigeria has reached its longer-term production ambitions. The government has expressed a desire to raise output to two million barrels per day, while the NUPRC has also discussed a longer-term target of three million barrels by 2030.
FORCADOS AND BONNY LEAD OUTPUT
The NUPRC’s breakdown by terminal and production stream showed that Forcados recorded the highest average output in September, at 320,320 barrels per day. Bonny Terminal followed with 303,270 barrels per day.
These figures highlight the importance of major terminals in Nigeria’s crude production and evacuation network. Stable operations at such locations can help producers move crude efficiently, while disruptions can affect deliveries and national output.
The regulator did not attribute September’s gains to a single field or company. Instead, it pointed to steadier activity across most producing assets and the absence of major pipeline outages. Therefore, the results appear to reflect broader operational improvements rather than one isolated development.
WHY PRODUCTION STABILITY MATTERS
Higher and more reliable production can support government revenue, export receipts and foreign exchange supply. When Nigeria produces and exports more crude, it has the potential to earn additional income, depending on global oil prices, sales volumes and the terms of its crude contracts.
Nevertheless, production figures alone do not show how much revenue the government will receive. Prices can change quickly, while operating costs, contractual arrangements and the volume of crude actually exported also affect earnings.
In addition, some output may be used domestically or may not immediately translate into settled export proceeds.
Stable production can also help Nigeria meet commitments to buyers and reduce uncertainty for operators.
Conversely, pipeline damage, theft, maintenance work and equipment failures can disrupt output, delay deliveries and raise operating costs.
The September results suggest that fewer major pipeline interruptions helped improve production uptime and crude evacuation. However, maintaining the gains will require continued asset maintenance, security and cooperation between regulators and operators.
INDUSTRY TARGETS REMAIN AMBITIOUS
Nigeria has struggled at times to produce at its full capacity because of theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and operational setbacks.
The sector has also faced investment challenges and delays that can slow the development of new fields.
For that reason, the latest figures offer a positive monthly signal but do not guarantee a sustained increase. Production must remain stable over time if Nigeria hopes to meet its targets and strengthen its position in international oil markets.
OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING MONTHS
The next test will be whether Nigeria can maintain September’s improvement over the coming months. Investors and industry stakeholders will watch monthly production data, pipeline conditions, terminal performance and progress on projects that could add new barrels.
The distinction between peak and average output will remain important when assessing progress. While the daily peak reached 1.84 million barrels, average combined production stood at 1.717 million barrels per day. Crude oil alone averaged 1.53 million barrels daily, excluding condensate.
Overall, September brought a rise in average oil production and marked a fifth consecutive month in which Nigeria met its OPEC crude quota. The NUPRC linked the improvement to steadier operations and fewer major pipeline disruptions.
However, sustained progress will depend on keeping facilities reliable, addressing security risks and bringing additional production capacity online.
The figures provide evidence of improvement, but the industry’s longer-term performance will depend on whether operators can maintain production consistently in the months ahead.
