MORGANABLE INDUSTRY WATCH
Nigeria’s downstream oil industry recorded a major shift in August as domestic refineries supplied more petrol to the local market than imports, according to fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Akure —
Nigeria’s Petrol Supply Shifts Toward Local Refining as Dangote Gains Ground. Nigeria’s downstream oil industry recorded a major shift in August as domestic refineries supplied more petrol to the local market than imports, according to fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The development highlights the growing role of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the country’s fuel supply and points to a changing structure in Nigeria’s petroleum market.
The NMDPRA released its August 2026 State of the Midstream and Downstream Sector factsheet on September 24.
The report showed that average daily Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) receipts increased to 50.5 million litres in August from 45.5 million litres in July. That represents an 11 per cent rise in total petrol receipts.
However, the most significant change came from the source of the supply. Domestic PMS receipts rose by 39 per cent, moving from 25.8 million litres per day in July to 35.9 million litres per day in August.
At the same time, petrol imports declined by 26 per cent, from 19.7 million litres per day to 14.6 million litres per day.
As a result, locally supplied petrol exceeded imported petrol by 21.3 million litres per day during August. The figures suggest that Nigeria is relying less on foreign refined petrol as domestic refining activity expands.
The Dangote refinery played the central role in that change. NMDPRA data showed that the refinery produced an average of 41.94 million litres of petrol per day during August.
It supplied about 35.87 million litres per day to the domestic market. It also exported 9.73 million litres per day.
The refinery ended August with about 360.4 million litres of petrol in stock. Its average capacity utilisation stood at 105.21 per cent during the month, according to the regulator’s figures.
The facility has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, making it the largest refinery in Africa.
The latest figures also show that domestic refining is not limited to petrol alone. The Dangote facility produced an average of 18.01 million litres of automotive gas oil, commonly known as diesel, each day.
It also produced 24.48 million litres of aviation turbine kerosene. The refinery supplied part of those products locally while exporting other volumes.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries remained inactive during the period covered by the report.
NMDPRA listed the Port Harcourt Refining Company, Warri Refining and Petrochemicals Company, and Kaduna Refining and Petrochemicals Company as not producing.
That contrast is important for the industry. While government-owned facilities have yet to resume production at the time covered by the data, private and modular refineries are contributing to domestic output.
WalterSmith Refinery recorded average capacity utilisation of 64.77 per cent, while Edo Refinery recorded 90.43 per cent.
The increase in local petrol supply also came alongside higher crude receipts by domestic refineries.
NMDPRA reported that crude oil receipts rose by 17 per cent, from 585,000 barrels per day in July to 683,000 barrels per day in August.
Between January and August, domestic refineries received 137.98 million barrels of crude and other feedstock.
Domestic crude accounted for 79.64 per cent of that volume, while imported seaborne crude made up 20.36 per cent.
The figures indicate that local crude remains the main feedstock for Nigerian refineries, although imported crude still plays a role in sustaining refinery operations.
The changing supply pattern could have wider implications for Nigeria’s fuel market. For years, the country depended heavily on imported refined petroleum products despite being a major crude oil producer.
That dependence exposed the market to international prices, foreign exchange pressures, shipping costs and supply disruptions.
Greater local production can reduce the need for imported petrol. However, domestic refining does not completely shield consumers from international oil-market movements.
Recent developments have shown why. Global oil prices have remained sensitive to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.
Higher crude costs can raise the cost of producing petrol even when the fuel is refined inside Nigeria. Therefore, increased refining capacity does not automatically guarantee lower pump prices.
Reuters reported earlier in September that petrol prices had risen to around ₦1,400 per litre in Lagos and Abuja, while some northern locations recorded prices as high as ₦1,500.
The increase came despite the Dangote refinery operating at high capacity, showing the influence of global crude prices on domestic fuel costs.
The August data also showed a decline in recorded petrol consumption. Average PMS consumption fell by 14 per cent, from 48.3 million litres per day in July to 41.5 million litres per day in August.
NMDPRA said its consumption figure was based on volumes trucked out into the domestic market.
Petrol stock sufficiency improved slightly as well. The regulator reported that PMS stock sufficiency increased from 22.4 days in July to 22.9 days in August. That improvement provides some additional supply cushion for the market.
Other petroleum products recorded different trends. Average daily diesel receipts fell by 39 per cent, from 23.6 million litres in July to 14.5 million litres in August.
Diesel imports dropped sharply by 84 per cent, from 7.9 million litres per day to 1.3 million litres per day. Domestic diesel receipts also declined by 16 per cent.
The developments come as Dangote continues to expand its role beyond Nigeria. On September 24, Reuters reported that Dangote Group, Ethiopia and Djibouti plan to build a $660 million refined petroleum pipeline linking Ethiopia and Djibouti.
The project would include petroleum storage and transport infrastructure and could create another regional outlet for refined products.
The shift could reshape competition among refiners and fuel suppliers nationwide.
For Nigeria, the latest NMDPRA figures underline the growing importance of domestic refining.
The country is moving from a system dominated by imported petrol toward one in which local refineries supply a larger share of demand.
Nevertheless, the sector still faces challenges, including fuel-price volatility and inactive state-owned refineries.
As the industry develops, the performance of domestic refineries will remain important to Nigeria’s energy market. The August figures provide evidence of a significant change, but they also show that refining capacity alone cannot remove every pressure affecting fuel prices and supply.
For consumers and businesses, the key issue will be whether stronger local production can translate into a more stable and resilient petroleum market over time.
