Morganable Economy Watch
Despite acknowledging recent macroeconomic reforms introduced by the administration of Bola Tinubu, the World Bank said the benefits have yet to translate into tangible improvements in living standards for most citizens
kaNo —
A new report by the World Bank has revealed that about 79 per cent of Nigerians are either living in poverty or at risk of falling into it, underscoring the country’s worsening socio-economic conditions despite ongoing economic reforms.
The findings are contained in the Bank’s newly approved Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria covering 2026 to 2032, alongside its Streamlined Country Diagnostic, which provides an in-depth assessment of the nation’s economic and social outlook.
According to the report, 33 per cent of Nigerians are classified as ultra-poor-unable to meet basic food requirements-while 61 per cent live below the national poverty line. In total, nearly four out of every five Nigerians fall within the vulnerable category.
It also highlighted critical infrastructure and employment gaps, noting that more than 86 million Nigerians lack access to electricity, while between three and four million young people enter the labour market annually with limited job prospects.
Despite acknowledging recent macroeconomic reforms introduced by the administration of Bola Tinubu, the World Bank said the benefits have yet to translate into tangible improvements in living standards for most citizens.
The reforms-ranging from the removal of petrol subsidy and exchange rate liberalisation to tighter monetary policies and tax adjustments have contributed to improved macroeconomic indicators.
Economic growth rose from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the same period in 2025, while foreign reserves climbed above $42bn. Fiscal deficits have also narrowed, and investor confidence has strengthened.
Inflation Overshadows Economic Reforms
However, the Bank warned that these gains have been overshadowed by persistent inflation, which continues to erode household incomes, particularly among low-income groups.
“High inflation, though declining, continues to erode real incomes, particularly for the low income earners,” the report stated, adding that social protection measures aimed at cushioning the effects of reforms have been slow and uneven in their implementation.
It stressed that while recent reforms have helped avert a deeper economic crisis, they are insufficient on their own to drive meaningful poverty reduction without complementary structural changes.
“Despite recent bold reforms stabilising the economy and laying the groundwork for the Renewed Hope Agenda, significant structural challenges remain,” the report said.
To address these challenges, the World Bank’s new strategy prioritises job creation as the most effective pathway out of poverty.
The framework proposes targeted interventions in labour-intensive sectors such as agriculture and micro, small and medium enterprises, alongside investments in critical infrastructure including electricity, digital connectivity, education, and healthcare.
It also highlights the need for an “agile social transfer system” to help vulnerable populations exit poverty and prevent them from slipping back during economic shocks.
Nigeria Facing Employment Crisis
The Bank warned that Nigeria faces an urgent employment crisis, noting that one in four young people is neither employed, in education, nor in training. Most workers, it added, remain trapped in low-productivity and poorly paid informal jobs.
Beyond employment, the report raised concerns over Nigeria’s weak social protection system.
It noted that public spending on social safety nets accounted for just 0.14 per cent of Gross Domestic Product as of 2021, while only 8.5 per cent of poor Nigerians had access to any form of support.
According to the Bank, more than 60 million Nigerians fall into the ultra-poor category, lacking the resources to meet minimum nutritional requirements.
To improve social resilience, the institution called for increased investment in targeted welfare programmes, particularly as ongoing reforms create additional fiscal space.
The Country Partnership Framework outlines plans to support Nigeria in building a unified and better-targeted social protection system.
This would include expanding the national social registry, strengthening digital identity systems, and deploying efficient digital payment platforms to ensure aid reaches intended beneficiaries.
The strategy also advocates differentiated support for various income groups-ultra-poor, poor, and near-poor drawing lessons from countries such as Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia, and India.
World Bank Urges Stronger Domestic Financing
In addition, the World Bank emphasised the need for stronger domestic financing, improved coordination between federal and state governments, and integration of cash transfer programmes with investments in nutrition, education, healthcare, and sanitation.
While the report acknowledges progress in stabilising Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment, it concludes that sustained reforms, combined with large-scale job creation and expanded social safety nets, will be essential to reversing the country’s deepening poverty crisis.
As the government pushes forward with its economic reform agenda, the World Bank’s findings highlight the urgent need to ensure that growth translates into inclusive development and improved living conditions for millions of Nigerians struggling to make ends meet.
