morganable economy watch
The data suggests that while Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol has reduced significantly over the past year, the second quarter of 2026 witnessed a resurgence in import activity following a steep drop in Q1.
KaNo—
Nigeria’s expenditure on imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, surged to N952.15bn in the second quarter of 2026.
The development underscore the country’s continued reliance on foreign fuel despite increasing domestic refining output and an ongoing dispute between local producers and importers.
Data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics’ Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report for Q2 2026 revealed that petrol imports rose sharply from N87.40bn recorded in the first quarter of the year.
The jump represents an increase of N864.75bn, or 989.4 per cent, within just three months.
This means Nigeria spent approximately 10.9 times more on petrol imports between April and June than it did between January and March, highlighting a dramatic rebound in import spending after a relatively low outlay in the early part of the year.
The NBS report ranked “Motor Spirit Ordinary” as the country’s most imported commodity during the quarter, ahead of crude petroleum, durum wheat, used diesel or semi-diesel vehicles, and motorcycles. At N952.15bn, petrol accounted for 6.60 per cent of Nigeria’s total import bill of N14.42tn in Q2.
Nigeria imported N2.83tn worth of PMS in Q2 2025, indicating that the current figure represents a drop of N1.88tn, or about 66.4 per cent year-on-year.
Petrol Import Resurge In 2026
The data suggests that while Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol has reduced significantly over the past year, the second quarter of 2026 witnessed a resurgence in import activity following a steep drop in Q1.
The rebound comes amid tensions in the downstream oil sector, particularly between the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and petroleum marketers over the continued importation of refined products despite increased local refining capacity.
Sources familiar with the matter indicated that the Dangote refinery is considering halting petrol sales to marketers who continue to import PMS into the country.
The move, if implemented, could reshape supply dynamics in Nigeria’s fuel market.
The refinery’s concern centres on reports that some marketers blend imported petrol with locally refined products before distributing them.
Dangote officials have also raised issues regarding what they describe as inadequate laboratory infrastructure and weak quality-control mechanisms for imported fuel.
Absence Of Testing System Obstruct Verification
The refinery has argued that the absence of robust testing systems makes it difficult to independently verify the specifications of petroleum products entering the Nigerian market.
The development comes shortly after the refinery warned that increasing petrol imports were forcing it to export surplus production, despite having sufficient capacity to meet domestic demand.
According to the company, imported PMS accounted for about 43 per cent of fuel supply in the Nigerian market in July, raising concerns about market stability and planning uncertainties.
The refinery stated that while it had maintained adequate reserves to meet local demand, the continued issuance of import licences had made it difficult to predict consumption patterns and manage inventory effectively.
“As a responsible energy provider, we have always endeavoured to keep adequate reserves to satisfy local demand,” the refinery said in a statement.
“However, when significant volumes of imported PMS continue to enter the market with limited visibility on future import levels, it becomes commercially unsustainable to hold excess inventory indefinitely.”
However, petroleum marketers have pushed back against the refinery’s position, criticising the reported plan to restrict sales to importers.
Importers Accuse Dangote Of Monopoly
They argue that such a move could stifle competition and create a monopoly in the domestic fuel market.
The marketers have also challenged the refinery to provide concrete evidence supporting claims that imported petrol does not meet required quality standards.
Industry analysts note that the spike in import value during the second quarter may not necessarily reflect a proportional increase in fuel volumes.
Instead, it may have been driven largely by higher international fuel prices during the period.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that imported PMS averaged 11.23 million litres per day in Q1 2026. In contrast, the Q2 average declined by 17.8 per cent to 9.23 million litres per day.
This indicates that while Nigeria spent significantly more on petrol imports in Q2, the actual volume of fuel imported fell, suggesting that rising global prices played a major role in inflating the import bill.
The period coincided with geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran conflict, which disrupted global oil supply chains and pushed up prices of crude oil and refined petroleum products.
Meanwhile, domestic refining output recorded steady growth.
Local refineries increased supply from an average of 34.57 million litres per day in Q1 to 38.23 million litres per day in Q2, representing a 10.6 per cent increase.
Conversely, the share of imported PMS dropped from 24.5 per cent to 19.5 per cent over the same period.
The growing contribution of domestic refineries is expected to further reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol in the long term.
However, analysts warn that policy consistency, market transparency, and infrastructure development will be critical in achieving this goal.
Earlier reports indicated that the rising cost of imported petrol estimated to be more than N45 per litre higher than locally refined products could discourage marketers from relying on foreign supply.
This price gap is likely to strengthen the competitiveness of local refining and support calls by some stakeholders for a gradual phase-out of petrol imports.
Nevertheless, the ongoing friction between local refiners and importers highlights unresolved structural issues within Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
As the country navigates the transition towards self-sufficiency in fuel production, the balance between encouraging domestic capacity and maintaining a competitive market environment remains a key policy challenge.
