Arewa In The Next 25 Years

Would Arewa Survive the Current System Of Governance..?

KaNo, Kano State, Nigeria —

Arewa in the next 25 years, drawn from the current standpoint. Last week, I had the privilege of attending a thought-provoking paper presentation on the future of Northern Nigeria, titled “Arewa in the Next 25 Years.

Arewa in the next 25 years, drawn from the current standpoint. Last week, I had the privilege of attending a thought-provoking paper presentation on the future of Northern Nigeria, titled “Arewa in the Next 25 Years.

The session brought together scholars, public intellectuals, policy observers and concerned citizens who were eager to reflect on the present realities of the region and what they may become if current trends continue unchecked. It was one of those rare gatherings where uncomfortable truths were not avoided, and where the future was discussed not as fantasy, but as a consequence of today’s decisions.

The central argument of the presentation was clear and unsettling, that if the North continues on its present path of weak governance, rising insecurity, poor educational outcomes, widening poverty and elite complacency, the region may face a future defined by deeper instability, economic decline and social fragmentation.

The speaker did not rely on emotion or sensational language. Rather, the presentation was rooted in trend analysis, using existing demographic, political and economic indicators to project where the region may be headed over the next quarter century.

One of the strongest points raised was that the future does not arrive suddenly. It is built gradually through habits, policies and failures repeated over time. The North today is already witnessing many warning signs: communities displaced by violence, declining trust in institutions, most growing unemployment among youth, and reduced agricultural productivity in many rural areas. These are not isolated challenges. They are disastrous signals of structural problems that may become harder to reverse if abandoned for another generation.

Moving on,  the issue of insecurity occupied a central place in the presentation. It was argued that if current patterns continue, many parts of the region could become increasingly difficult to be governed effectively, looking at the state of banditry, insurgency, kidnapping and communal conflict already disrupting farming, trade, education and movement across several states.

Where insecurity becomes normalised, investment declines, schools close, healthcare weakens, citizens losing faith in the state, fear becomes part of daily life, cannot prosper.

Equally significant was the discussion on population growth. Northern Nigeria has one of the fastest-growing populations on the continent. By 2050, Nigeria itself is projected to be among the most populous countries in the world. This reality presents both opportunity and danger. A youthful population can become an engine of innovation, labour and growth if properly educated and productively engaged. But where millions of young people lack schooling, skills and employment, population growth may instead deepen poverty and instability. The Demographic presentation reminded the audience of rewards, the prepared societies and punishes unprepared ones.

The paper also examined education as perhaps the most decisive variable for the region’s future. In many northern communities, access to quality education remains inadequate, especially for girls and for children in rural areas. Teacher shortages, weak infrastructure, insecurity and poverty continue to limit school attendance. Without serious intervention, the North risks venturing into the future, a generation insufficiently equipped for a competitive modern economy. The cost of educational neglect is not only personal; it is regional and national.

Economic concerns were also addressed in detail. Despite vast land, energetic youth and strategic geographic position, larger parts of the North remain under-industrialised and heavily dependent on government spending despite vast resources. Agriculture, which should be a foundation of prosperity in the region, continues to grapple from insecurity, outdated methods, climate pressures and poor storage facilities. 

The presenter argued that unless the region diversifies its economy, supports enterprise and modernises production, it may continue exporting labour while importing opportunity.

Another powerful theme was governance. The paper suggested that many of the region’s difficulties are not caused by lack of resources alone, but by weak institutions, corruption and failure of leadership. Where public funds meant for schools, hospitals, roads and social welfare are diverted or mismanaged, the poor pay the price. Where appointments are based on patronage rather than competence, performance suffers. Where leaders speak only during elections, cynicism grows. The future of Arewa was argued substantially on whether governance becomes more accountable and effective.

The presentation was not entirely pessimistic. It also outlined pathways to renewal. Northern Nigeria possesses immense agricultural potential, sound trading culture, influential institutions, resilient communities and a large youth population capable of transformation if empowered. With strategic investment in education, irrigation, technology, healthcare and transport infrastructure, the region could become a centre of food production, commerce and innovation. What appears today as a crisis could become tomorrow’s opportunity if guided by vision.

Likewise, there was also emphasis on social cohesion also at the scene. The North is diverse in ethnicity, language, religion and historical experience. Its strength has often come from coexistence and interdependence among communities. Yet divisive politics and manipulated identity conflicts threaten that foundation. The speaker warned that societies fragmented from within struggle to compete without unity does not require uniformity, but it does require justice, fairness and mutual respect.

As I listened throughout the session, one message echoed above all others: the future remains open. Trend analysis may reveal where present actions are leading, but it also offers a chance to change direction. Decline is not destiny. Progress is not automatic. What the North becomes in the next 25 years heavily relies on choices made now by leaders, institutions and ordinary citizens alike.

I left the presentation convinced that conversations of this nature are important. No region develops by accident, rather, it develops through foresight, discipline and sustained commitment to public good. The North requires not merely reactions to crisis, but a coherent vision for decades ahead.